政策“暖风”能否预热楼市“金九银十”？

Core Viewpoint - The new housing policies in Beijing and Shanghai aim to stimulate domestic demand by relaxing purchase restrictions and optimizing loan policies, although the marginal effects may be limited due to the moderate nature of the policies and prior demand releases in 2024 [1][20]. Policy Changes - Beijing's new policy allows eligible families to purchase an unlimited number of homes outside the Fifth Ring Road, while previously they were limited to two [2]. - Shanghai's new policy similarly permits families to buy an unlimited number of homes outside the Outer Ring Road, with adjustments made to local residency requirements [2][18]. Market Response - Following the implementation of the new policies, Beijing saw a slight increase in both new and second-hand home transaction volumes, with new home daily average transactions rising by 9% compared to July [4][10]. - In Shanghai, new home transactions increased by 25% compared to July, indicating a more pronounced recovery in the new home market [11][15]. Transaction Trends - In the first eight months of 2025, Beijing's new residential sales area totaled 3.42 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%, while Shanghai's new residential sales area was 6.95 million square meters, a slight decline of 4% [10][18]. - The proportion of transactions occurring outside the Fifth Ring Road in Beijing and outside the Outer Ring Road in Shanghai has consistently exceeded 70%, highlighting these areas as key markets for new home sales [19]. Future Outlook - The policies are expected to enhance market activity in peripheral areas, with potential for increased demand from families looking to upgrade their housing [20]. - As the traditional peak sales season approaches, the synchronized rollout of supportive policies in both cities is anticipated to boost market confidence and gradually restore transaction volumes [1][20].