Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-05 03:01Economic Overview - The latest Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that overall economic activity in the U.S. has remained nearly unchanged over the past six weeks, with most regions showing "flat or slight declines" [1] - Rising tariffs are impacting supply chains and prices, leading to higher costs for businesses and forcing them to raise prices, while consumers are cutting back on spending due to wage growth lagging behind inflation [1][2] - Summer inflation has increased, but remains at a "moderate or modest" level; however, slow wage growth is reducing household purchasing power, making consumers more cautious [2] Labor Market and Federal Reserve Actions - Despite signs of weakness, the labor market remains stable; however, officials from the Federal Reserve believe that the inflation caused by tariffs is a one-time shock expected to dissipate by next year, while labor market deterioration poses a greater economic risk [2] - The weak economic conditions reflected in the Beige Book have heightened market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with investors anticipating the first rate cut of the year during the policy meeting on September 16-17 [2] - A poor performance in the August non-farm payroll report would almost "lock in" the decision for a rate cut in September, with analysts suggesting a potential 25 basis point cut as a moderate measure to balance inflation and employment [2] Corporate Developments - China Fortune Land Development Co., Ltd. announced that as of September 3, 2025, 78.43% of the holders of its existing notes have joined the restructuring support agreement, with the early consent fee deadline extended to September 23, 2025 [3] - Shanghai Fosun High Technology (Group) Co., Ltd. plans to issue its first Magnolia bond as early as this month, with an inquiry range of 6%-6.5% [5] Market Movements - As of September 3, the yield on China's two-year government bonds is 1.39%, while the ten-year yield is 1.80%. In the U.S., the two-year yield has decreased by 5 basis points to 3.61%, and the ten-year yield has decreased by 6 basis points to 4.22% [8] - The top ten gainers and losers in Chinese dollar bonds have been reported, with significant price fluctuations observed [12]