Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-05 03:19Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reported that Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016) achieved a basic earnings per share of HKD 3.93 for the second half of the fiscal year ending June, representing a 9% increase compared to the previous half, but an 11% decrease year-on-year, and 7% lower than Goldman Sachs' expectations [1] - Revenue was 24% below Goldman Sachs' forecast, primarily due to lower-than-expected contributions from property development and other non-property businesses [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts a 4% year-on-year decline in dividends for the fiscal year 2026 due to basic earnings growth, followed by a 4% annual growth from 2027 to 2028, and has adjusted the target price down by 8% from HKD 104 to HKD 96 based on the price-to-book ratio against return on assets and return on equity [1] Group 2 - Property development revenue was 39% lower than Goldman Sachs' forecast due to lower-than-expected contributions from the Hong Kong and mainland markets [2] - EBIT exceeded Goldman Sachs' expectations, attributed to higher profit margins from mainland operations [2] - Goldman Sachs forecasts a property development profit margin of 13% for the fiscal year ending June 2026, gradually recovering to 15% and 18% in 2027 and 2028, benefiting from an industry rebound [2] - Following the analysis of the second half performance, management guidance, and the latest revenue recognition plans, Goldman Sachs has revised down the basic earnings per share forecasts for 2026 to 2028 by 14%, 12%, and 2% respectively, while adjusting dividend forecasts down by 4%, 3%, and up by 3% [2] - The average payout ratio for the next three years is expected to be around 49%, compared to an average of 52% over the past five years, with management reaffirming a maximum dividend payout ratio of 50% [2]