今晚非农预期：9月降息还有变局吗？

Group 1 - The non-farm payrolls for August are expected to show an increase of 75,000 jobs, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth below 100,000 [1] - The market is showing signs of fatigue, with initial comparisons of August data likely shifting focus to revisions of June and July figures [1] - Wall Street anticipates the unemployment rate may rise to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021, highlighting a weakening labor market [4] Group 2 - The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, but this could change if employment improves or inflation worsens [2] - Analysts suggest that adding over 225,000 jobs could lead the Fed to alter its plans, while a disappointing non-farm report may increase bets on rate cuts, potentially even a 50 basis point reduction [2] - Average hourly earnings are projected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, with a better-than-expected non-farm report likely refocusing attention on wage-related inflation [4]