Lululemon二季度EPS超预期，下调全年业绩预期，盘后跌15%

Core Viewpoint - Lululemon has significantly lowered its performance expectations, disappointing investors for the third consecutive quarter, despite reporting earnings per share of $3.10, which exceeded the expected $2.87. However, this positive surprise was overshadowed by weak revenue and same-store sales growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q2 earnings per share were $3.10, surpassing expectations, but revenue of $2.53 billion fell slightly short of the $2.54 billion forecast. Same-store sales growth was only 1%, well below the anticipated 3.7% [2][3]. - The full-year revenue guidance was drastically reduced from $11.15-$11.3 billion to $10.85-$11 billion, indicating a decline in annual growth rate from double digits to 2-4% [2][3]. - The company anticipates that tariffs will reduce gross profit by $240 million in 2025 and operating profit by $240 million in 2026, with an additional $320 million impact in 2026 [3]. Market Dynamics - Lululemon's revenue surged by 140% over four years during the pandemic, but this growth momentum has dissipated, with emerging competitors like Alo Yoga and Vuori capturing market share [2]. - The North American market, a core area for Lululemon, saw a 4% decline in same-store sales, while the Chinese market grew by 17% and other international markets increased by 12% [3]. Brand Challenges - The brand's premium pricing power is under unprecedented threat from the "alternative culture," where lower-priced competitors are gaining traction. For instance, Costco's Kirkland yoga pants are priced at $16, significantly lower than Lululemon's Align series priced between $98 and $118 [4]. - CEO Calvin McDonald acknowledged that product innovation has stagnated, leading to a perception of the brand as "boring" and "predictable" [4]. Tariff Impact - Approximately 40% of Lululemon's products are manufactured in Vietnam, exposing the company to new tariff policies, particularly the cancellation of the "minimum threshold exemption" [5][6]. - CFO Meghan Frank indicated that this policy change would account for 1.7 percentage points of the anticipated 2.2 percentage point decline in annual tariff-related profits [6]. Financial Health - Despite the challenges, Lululemon maintains a strong financial position with $1.33 billion in cash and $1.71 billion in debt, resulting in a healthy debt-to-equity ratio of 39.8% [8]. - The company generated $2.03 billion in operating cash flow and $1.18 billion in free cash flow, providing ample resources to weather economic downturns and make strategic adjustments [9]. - Inventory has increased by 15% year-over-year, attributed to strategic stocking before tariff implementation, while profitability metrics remain robust, with a return on equity (ROE) of 42.5% and a return on assets (ROA) of 22% [10].