为什么说俄罗斯不能赢，乌克兰也不能败？

Group 1 - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has lasted for three years, with both sides engaged in a fierce ideological battle, but the ideal outcome may be a strategic balance where neither side achieves a decisive victory [1][3] - The historical context reveals that NATO's eastward expansion has significantly threatened Russia's strategic space, prompting a defensive response from Putin [3][5] - From China's strategic perspective, a prolonged stalemate in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is beneficial as it diverts Western attention and resources away from China [3][8] Group 2 - Russia is a crucial strategic resource for China, providing significant energy and raw materials, with trade between the two countries exceeding $240 billion in 2023 [5][6] - However, the relationship is not a military alliance, and a complete Russian victory could pose long-term risks for China, including increased European military spending and potential sanctions [5][6] - The fear of Russian expansion could lead to NATO's continued growth and increased military expenditures in Europe, negatively impacting China's export industries [6][8] Group 3 - A complete failure of Ukraine would represent a crisis for China rather than an opportunity, as it could lead to a more aggressive Western stance against China [8] - The ideal scenario for China is to maintain the current situation where Russia does not collapse but also does not achieve total victory, allowing for a strategic advantage in the long run [8]