美债长端“逆行”背后藏了什么玄机？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected rise in 30-year U.S. Treasury yields despite expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, attributing this phenomenon to seasonal factors, global market influences, and structural anxieties regarding inflation and debt levels [4]. Group 1: Seasonal Factors - September is a peak month for corporate bond issuance in the U.S., leading to a diversion of funds away from Treasury bonds, which results in decreased demand for U.S. government debt [4]. - Traders returning from vacation are busy reallocating their portfolios, contributing to a temporary lack of interest in U.S. Treasuries, which are perceived as "discounted" assets [4]. Group 2: Global Market Influences - European long-term bonds have seen a decline, with the UK’s 30-year government bond yield reaching its highest level since 1998, creating a domino effect that negatively impacts U.S. Treasury yields [4]. Group 3: Structural Anxieties - Rising tariffs are increasing costs, leading companies to pass on these expenses to consumers, which is expected to drive inflation higher in the coming months, as noted in the Beige Book [4]. - Investors are demanding higher yields to hedge against inflation risks, especially with the U.S. planning to issue $1 trillion in new debt in the third quarter, nearly half of which will be long-term bonds, exacerbating concerns about rising debt levels [4]. - In the short term, if the Federal Reserve signals a series of rate cuts, yields may decrease; however, inflation and debt levels are seen as the primary long-term drivers of market behavior [4].