【UNFX 课堂】非农爆冷美联储9月降息成定局市场押注概率飙升至 98%

Group 1: Employment Data - The June non-farm payroll report shows an increase of 206,000 jobs, slightly above expectations but with previous values significantly revised down from 272,000 to 218,000, indicating overestimation of prior employment strength [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, the highest level since October 2021, marking three consecutive months above 4.0% [2] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year, with the growth rate continuing to slow down, suggesting a significant and comprehensive slowdown in the labor market [3] Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the employment data release, the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September surged from around 70% to 98%, indicating strong market consensus on the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut [4] - The market is currently pricing in two rate cuts (50 basis points) for the year, with a greater than 50% chance of a third cut [4] Group 3: Asset Class Implications - The anticipated rate cuts are expected to reshape asset class dynamics, benefiting gold as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets [5] - U.S. equities, particularly technology growth stocks, are likely to benefit from lower financing costs and increased valuations due to reduced discount rates [5] - The U.S. dollar is expected to face pressure, providing relief for non-U.S. currencies such as the euro, yen, and yuan [6] - Improved liquidity expectations and rising risk appetite are generally favorable for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin [7] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Investors should focus on adjusting their portfolios to increase exposure to interest rate-sensitive assets in light of the anticipated rate cuts [8] - Caution is advised against excessive buying, with a strategy to utilize market volatility for gradual positioning [9] - A global macro perspective is essential as shifts in U.S. dollar liquidity will impact global markets [10] Group 5: Conclusion - The non-farm report may serve as a critical factor for the Federal Reserve's policy shift, providing sufficient rationale to initiate a rate-cutting cycle [11] - While the market anticipates easing policies, the ultimate decision-making power remains with the Federal Reserve [11]