领峰环球金银评论：非农重磅来袭 金价多头迎生死考验

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have surged to a historical high of $3,578 but have recently experienced significant volatility and a pullback as profit-taking occurs, with investors awaiting the upcoming non-farm payroll data for clues on Federal Reserve policy direction [1] - Initial jobless claims rose to 237,000, exceeding the expected 230,000, indicating a cooling labor market. This weak data reinforces expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, leading investors to adopt a cautious stance ahead of the non-farm report [1] - The ADP national employment report showed only 54,000 private sector jobs added in August, significantly below the market expectation of 65,000, with July's figure revised up to 106,000. These indicators suggest a gradual slowdown in the U.S. labor market, supporting gold's safe-haven demand while raising recession concerns [1] - Investors are focused on the upcoming U.S. non-farm employment report, which could directly influence the Federal Reserve's rate cut timeline and subsequently impact gold prices. Weak employment indicators strengthen rate cut expectations and support gold demand, but better-than-expected data could pressure gold prices [1] Technical Analysis - The hourly chart for gold (XAUUSD) shows a pattern of higher lows and higher highs, indicating a strong bullish trend. Recent profit-taking has led to a quick pullback, but the overall bullish trend remains intact. A breakout above resistance is anticipated following the non-farm data release [4] - The MACD indicator suggests that the bullish trend is dominant, with potential for a new upward movement if a bullish crossover signal occurs. The strategy recommends looking for support levels to enter long positions [4] Trading Strategy - For day trading, a long position is suggested around $3,528 with a stop loss at $3,515 and a target range of $3,545 to $3,600 [5] Silver Analysis - The hourly chart for silver (XAGUSD) indicates a similar bullish trend with higher lows and higher highs. Although there is a formation of a high-level consolidation pattern, the overall bullish trend remains unbroken as long as support levels hold [8] - The MACD indicator shows a low-level bullish crossover, suggesting a potential upward movement following the current adjustment. The strategy recommends entering long positions at key support levels [8] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases include U.K. Halifax house price index, U.K. retail sales, France's trade balance, Switzerland's consumer confidence index, Eurozone GDP revision, Eurozone employment figures, and U.S. employment statistics including unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls [9]