中银证券：给予通威股份增持评级

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that Tongwei Co., Ltd. is expected to recover profits in the second half of 2025, driven by a significant increase in silicon material prices due to "anti-involution" measures in the industry, despite a year-on-year loss expansion in the first half of 2025 [1][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported an operating income of 40.509 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.51% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -4.955 billion yuan, indicating an expanded loss compared to the previous year [3]. - In Q2 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was -2.363 billion yuan, showing a reduction in losses compared to the previous quarter [3]. Business Operations - The photovoltaic segment of the company maintained steady shipments and actively prepared for new battery technologies, achieving a high-purity crystalline silicon production capacity of over 900,000 tons and a solar cell production capacity exceeding 150 GW by the end of June 2025 [3]. - The company sold 161,300 tons of polysilicon in the first half of 2025, holding a global market share of approximately 30%, and ranked first globally in solar cell sales with 49.89 GW shipped [3]. Market Trends - The "anti-involution" measures have led to a significant increase in silicon material prices, which rose to 46,000 yuan per ton by the end of August 2025, up from 35,000 yuan per ton at the end of June 2025 [4]. - The report anticipates that the company's profits may recover in the second half of 2025, supported by the upward trend in silicon material prices [4]. Valuation - The earnings per share forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to -1.30, 0.48, and 1.05 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 46.0 and 20.9 times for 2026 and 2027 [5]. - The company maintains a rating of "buy" based on its performance and market conditions [5].