Deutsche Bank AG(US:DB) Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang·2025-09-05 06:17Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank's report indicates that the recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar may signal the beginning of a long-term appreciation cycle for the currency [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The RMB's exchange rate is expected to improve due to a reduction in trade tensions, despite the increase in US tariffs on Chinese goods [1] - China's export performance has exceeded expectations, with growth in non-US regions effectively offsetting the decline in exports to the US [1] - There has been a notable increase in the willingness of export enterprises to convert foreign exchange, while the demand for foreign exchange from import enterprises has weakened [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The net inflow of foreign exchange under the trade account has steadily increased in recent months [1] - The flow of northbound capital in the Chinese stock market has significantly improved since August [1] - The market's short positions against the offshore RMB are at a recent low, providing room for further strengthening of the RMB [2] Group 3: Future Projections - Deutsche Bank forecasts that the RMB will appreciate to 7.0 against the US dollar by the end of 2025 and to 6.7 by the end of 2026 [2] - The seasonal characteristics of exports and strong demand for profit repatriation at year-end are expected to drive a concentration of foreign exchange conversion by exporters in the fourth quarter [1]