通威股份(600438)：2025H1业绩符合预期 触底信号凸显

Group 1 - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of -5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 40.509 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7.51% [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 24.575 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.44% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 54.24% [1] - The company maintained its position as the industry leader in silicon material sales, with approximately 161,300 tons sold in the first half of 2025, capturing about 30% of the global market share [1] Group 2 - The average price of silicon material in Q2 2025 declined compared to Q1 2025, leading to an increase in per-ton losses despite stable costs [1] - The company sold 49.89 GW of battery cells in the first half of 2025, continuing to hold the global number one position, with cumulative shipments surpassing 300 GW [2] - The company achieved component sales of 24.52 GW, maintaining the top position in domestic distributed shipments, while overseas sales reached 5.08 GW, showing explosive growth in markets like Poland, Romania, and Hungary [2] Group 3 - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 62.3 billion yuan, 69.1 billion yuan, and 75 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 32.3% in 2025 [3] - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down to -5.5 billion yuan, with subsequent years expected to show significant recovery [3] - The company maintains an "overweight" rating despite the downward adjustment in 2025 earnings expectations due to ongoing price declines in the industry chain and inventory impairment [3]