今晚非农将定调美联储降息节奏！黄金能否再次起飞？

Group 1 - The upcoming US non-farm payroll report is expected to confirm a weak labor market, with an estimated addition of 75,000 jobs in August, slightly above July's 73,000 [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%, marking the highest level since 2021, while average hourly earnings are expected to remain flat month-over-month and slow down year-over-year from 3.9% to 3.7% [1] - An ideal job addition range of 70,000 to 95,000 is suggested to balance investor concerns and support the rationale for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1] Group 2 - Wall Street is eager to understand whether the labor market is in a "low hiring, low firing" stagnation or showing signs of genuine deterioration, as historical trends indicate rapid worsening once labor market conditions begin to decline [2] - The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, but a significantly lower non-farm payroll figure could reignite expectations for a more aggressive rate cut [2] - Standard Chartered notes that the median forecast for job additions is 75,000, with a concentration of predictions between 60,000 and 100,000, suggesting that a figure below 40,000 could lead to pricing in a 50 basis point cut [2] Group 3 - The unemployment rate's expected rise to 4.3% does not indicate a significant spike, and unless job additions are exceptionally weak or the unemployment rate exceeds 4.4%, it may not prompt aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [3] - The August employment report is particularly scrutinized due to the recent firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director by Trump, raising concerns about government interference and the credibility of federal economic data [3] - Trump's nomination of E.J. Antoni as the new director may further influence perceptions of labor statistics [3] Group 4 - Recent data highlights increasing employment downside risks, with the ADP report showing only 54,000 job additions in August, significantly below expectations, and initial jobless claims rising to 237,000 [4] - Job openings in July fell to 7.18 million, the lowest in ten months, indicating weak labor demand [4] Group 5 - Federal Reserve officials have adopted a more dovish tone, with New York Fed President Williams noting a "gradual cooling" in the labor market and suggesting that the absence of inflationary pressures may clear the way for rate cuts [5] - Other Fed officials have indicated that a rate cut may be appropriate in the near future, with some suggesting multiple cuts within six months [5] Group 6 - Market expectations for a rate cut have suppressed the dollar, providing support for non-yielding precious metals like gold, although traders are cautious ahead of key data releases [6] - Analysts suggest that gold prices may face resistance around $3,560, with potential for further gains if new highs are reached [6] Group 7 - Concerns arise that the low expectations for the employment report may lead to stronger-than-expected data, which could push interest rates higher and limit the Federal Reserve's rate cut options [7] - Many traders anticipate three rate cuts by the end of the year [7]