中金：行业整体增速进入平缓阶段 物业管理行业整体中期派息情况大致符合预期

Core Viewpoint - The overall revenue growth for state-owned and non-default private enterprises in the property management sector is showing a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, with core net profit growth at 10.1%, aligning with expectations [1] - The performance of default private enterprises is showing a divergent trend, indicating a need for value-oriented investors to be cautious of associated risks [1] Group 1: Industry Growth and Performance - The industry is entering a phase of stable growth, primarily driven by basic property management services, which account for an average of 77% of revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 10% in the first half of 2025 [2] - Other business segments for most companies are acting as drag factors on growth, with new contract amounts remaining largely flat year-on-year and an overall slight increase in the cancellation rate, suggesting a continued moderate growth rate in the future [2] - Core/net profit margins for related enterprises are either stable or showing slight improvement, reflecting internal quality enhancement and efficiency improvements [2] Group 2: Industry Dynamics and Future Outlook - External and internal factors are catalyzing improvements in the industry ecosystem, with increasing pressure on collection rates and fluctuations in pricing, alongside uncertainties in labor costs [3] - The natural aging of managed project portfolios is leading to a dual selection process between property management companies and their clients, promoting a shift towards higher quality service demands and proactive project selection by companies [3] - Long-term, this dual selection is expected to transition the development model from "volume increase with price stability and pressured profitability" to "sustainable profit growth driven by reasonable and moderate price changes" [3] Group 3: Shareholder Returns - There is a growing consensus among listed companies to actively return profits to shareholders, with marginal pressure on collection rates and accounts receivable turnover days being manageable [4] - Companies are expected to maintain their cash flow targets for the year, with overall positive trends in dividends and share buybacks anticipated [4]