9月降息倒计时！96.5%概率引爆全球资产巨变，普通人如何守财富？

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to trigger a significant revaluation of global assets, including stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and real estate, as a response to economic pressures and weak employment in the U.S. [1][9][27] Economic Background - The primary driver for the impending rate cuts is the weakness in the U.S. labor market, with non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs in July 2025, significantly below the expected 110,000 [3] - The downward revision of job data for May and June, totaling a loss of nearly 260,000 jobs, indicates a more severe labor market weakness than anticipated [3] Fiscal Pressure - U.S. federal debt has surpassed $37 trillion, with interest payments becoming a substantial burden on the fiscal budget [5] - In a high-interest environment of 5%, debt interest payments are projected to approach $1 trillion by 2025, accounting for nearly 15% of annual tax revenue [5] - A 1% decrease in interest rates could save the U.S. government approximately $370 billion annually in interest payments, making rate cuts an attractive option to alleviate fiscal pressures [5] Monetary Policy Shift - The Federal Reserve's approach is shifting from a strict focus on controlling inflation to a more flexible "balancing" strategy, allowing for inflation to fluctuate around the 2% target [7] - This change in policy framework provides greater room for interest rate cuts [7] Asset Market Impact - The anticipated rate cuts will lead to a profound "value revaluation" in global asset markets, particularly affecting stocks, gold, and Bitcoin [9][10] - Historically, the S&P 500 index has seen an average increase of about 18% in the 12 months following a rate cut [12] - Growth stocks and small-cap stocks are expected to benefit significantly due to a decrease in cash flow discount rates [12] Gold and Bitcoin Dynamics - Gold typically performs well during rate cut cycles, with historical data showing a success rate of over 70% and an average increase of nearly 10% [15] - Bitcoin, as a high-risk asset, may attract new capital in a low-rate environment, although its volatility necessitates cautious investment strategies [17] Currency Implications - The dollar, as the global reserve currency, faces depreciation pressure due to interest rate cuts, with the dollar index experiencing its worst half-year performance since 1973 [19] - This situation may benefit other currencies and assets, challenging the dollar's reserve status [19] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to maintain an emergency reserve of 3-6 months of living expenses and consider money market funds and short-term bond funds for liquidity and stability [21] - It is recommended to lock in long-term low rates for floating-rate loans and prioritize paying off high-interest credit card debt [23] - A diversified asset allocation strategy is crucial for risk management and wealth growth, with defensive, balanced, and aggressive investment layers suggested [25]