2025 年白银快速上涨的五大驱动因素

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, international silver prices have experienced rapid growth driven by multiple factors including supply and demand dynamics, macroeconomic policies, and market sentiment. The key driving factors can be summarized into five interconnected aspects that collectively form the logic chain for the rise in silver prices [1]. Group 1: Gold-Silver Ratio and Price Elasticity - The gold-silver ratio reached a historical high of 106 in April 2025, exceeding the upper limit of its average by 32.5%, indicating a significant deviation from the reasonable range of 40-80. This deviation triggered a self-correcting mechanism in the market [4]. - The dual advantages of silver, as both a precious metal and an industrial commodity, have become more pronounced, attracting capital inflows as silver's valuation is perceived as undervalued compared to gold [4][5]. Group 2: Industrial Demand Growth - The explosive growth of the global photovoltaic (PV) industry in 2025 has become the primary driver of silver's industrial demand, with the global PV installed capacity expected to reach 655 GW, a 26% increase from 520 GW in 2024 [5]. - Silver consumption in PV production is estimated to reach 52,400 to 65,500 tons in 2025, accounting for over 25% of total global silver demand, which is an increase of 4 percentage points from 2024 [5][7]. Group 3: Safe-Haven Demand - The uncertainty in the global macroeconomic environment in 2025 has heightened market risk aversion, leading to a shift of funds into silver as a "gold substitute" due to its lower valuation compared to gold [8][10]. - Geopolitical tensions and trade frictions have further intensified market sentiment for safe-haven assets, with gold prices reaching historical highs, prompting investors to seek more liquid and lower-priced alternatives like silver [8][10]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September 2025 has lowered the opportunity cost of holding silver, enhancing its investment appeal [11]. - As of August 2025, the market probability of a 25 basis point rate cut had risen to 78%, significantly up from 35% in early July, which has contributed to a weaker dollar index and further amplified silver's price increase [12]. Group 5: Supply Constraints - Approximately 80% of global silver supply comes from the by-products of mining copper, lead, and zinc, making silver supply growth highly dependent on the extraction of these primary metals [13]. - In 2024, global silver supply from mines decreased by 1.3% to 24,500 tons, marking the first negative growth since 2016, and this supply constraint is expected to persist into 2025 [15]. - As of July 2025, global silver inventories across major exchanges had declined by 18% to 12,800 tons, the lowest level since 2010, exacerbating concerns over supply tightness and contributing to rising silver prices [15].