金荣中国：现货黄金继续防守于隔夜回吐范围内尝试上行

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,553 after a slight pullback, with a previous close at $3,545.63, down 0.4% [1] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, impacting gold prices [1] - A weak labor market is increasing expectations for interest rate cuts, which supports gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.16% to 98.28, putting pressure on gold prices as a stronger dollar reduces gold's attractiveness to holders of other currencies [1] - U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 2-year yield down 2.4 basis points to 3.59% and the 10-year yield down 4.4 basis points to 4.167%, both hitting four-month lows [1] - The flattening yield curve, with the spread between 2-year and 10-year yields narrowing to 58 basis points, often precedes Fed rate cuts [1] Market Sentiment - Gold prices have declined due to profit-taking by traders after a strong rally, with many investors cashing in at high points [2] - Initial jobless claims rose to 237,000, exceeding expectations and reflecting a cooling labor market, which has led to cautious market sentiment [2] - The ADP National Employment Report indicated only 54,000 private sector jobs were added in August, significantly below the expected 65,000, further supporting the view of a slowing labor market [4] - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September is now close to 100%, up from 87% a week prior, driven by the increasing likelihood of economic slowdown [4] Technical Analysis - The daily chart shows a small bearish candle, indicating a temporary pause in the upward trend, but the overall bullish structure remains intact [7] - Short-term price movements have seen gold prices rise from $3,320 to a peak of $3,578, with recent fluctuations testing support around $3,511 [7] - Traders are advised to adopt a cautious approach ahead of the non-farm payroll data release, with potential trading ranges identified between $3,530 and $3,560 [8]