百利好晚盘分析：非农公布在即 降息已成定局

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices are experiencing slight fluctuations as the market awaits the non-farm payroll data, with a high probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September regardless of the data outcome [1] - As of September 5, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates is 0.6%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 99.4% [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is in an overbought condition, with a potential for a price correction, while short-term resistance is noted at $3574 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices continue to trend downward, with a recent increase in U.S. crude oil inventories indicating a bearish outlook for prices [2] - The EIA reported an increase of 2.415 million barrels in crude oil inventories, contrary to expectations of a decrease [9] - OPEC+ is considering further production increases, which could exacerbate supply surplus risks and maintain downward pressure on oil prices [2] Group 3: U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. dollar index shows a clear downward trend, influenced by recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicating a shift towards a more dovish policy stance [3] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny due to external pressures, which may undermine market confidence in the dollar [3] - Technical indicators suggest that the dollar index is facing resistance from long-term moving averages, with a potential for continued decline [4] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown a bullish trend, with a significant rebound from previous lows and a double bottom breakout indicating a trend reversal [5] Group 5: Copper Market - Copper prices are showing signs of weakness, with a potential for a downward correction as indicated by recent technical patterns [6] Group 6: Employment Data - The U.S. ADP employment change for August was reported at 54,000, below the expected 65,000, indicating a slowdown in job growth [7] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 30 were reported at 237,000, slightly above expectations [8] Group 7: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases are scheduled, including the Eurozone GDP revision and U.S. non-farm payroll figures, which are anticipated to impact market sentiment [10][11][12]