布米普特拉北京投资基金管理有限公司：美国建筑支出连续两月下降

Core Insights - The U.S. construction industry continues to be hampered by high mortgage rates, with July construction spending showing a month-over-month decline of 0.1%, aligning with economists' expectations, while June's data was revised to a decline of 0.4%. Year-over-year, July construction spending decreased by 2.8% [1][4]. Group 1: Private Construction Spending - Private construction spending in the U.S. fell by 0.2%, with residential construction investment only slightly increasing by 0.1%. The spending on new single-family homes also saw a minimal growth of 0.1%, which is insufficient to reverse the overall downward trend [4]. - In the second quarter, U.S. residential investment contracted at the fastest pace in two and a half years, and a further decline is expected in the third quarter, marking a potential third consecutive quarter of decline [4]. Group 2: Mortgage Rates and Market Conditions - High mortgage rates continue to suppress the vitality of the U.S. real estate market. Although there are expectations that the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts in September, leading to a slight decrease in mortgage rates from this year's highs, current rates remain elevated [4]. - Additionally, a slowdown in the labor market is also contributing to the suppression of home sales [4]. Group 3: Inventory and Non-Residential Spending - Notably, the inventory of newly built homes for sale reached its highest level in 16 years in July, indicating a supply-demand imbalance in the market. Multi-family housing unit spending decreased by 0.4%, while private non-residential construction investment fell by 0.5% [7]. - Non-residential construction spending has already contracted for two consecutive quarters in the second quarter [7]. Group 4: Public Construction Spending - In contrast to the private sector, public construction project spending showed growth, increasing by 0.3% month-over-month. State and local public sector construction spending rose by 0.1%, while federal project spending surged by 3.2% [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts indicate that the ongoing decline in U.S. construction spending reflects the broader challenges facing the real estate market. Despite a recent decline in mortgage rates, they remain relatively high, continuing to suppress home-buying demand. Economic uncertainty is also making consumers more cautious in their purchasing decisions [9]. - The future recovery of the U.S. construction industry will depend on interest rate trends and overall economic performance. If the Federal Reserve proceeds with rate cuts, it may provide some uplift to the real estate market, but the high inventory levels and weak demand may require a longer time to fundamentally improve [9].