美国劳动力市场进入“失速时刻”！下周还有80万个就业岗位待下修？

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with predictions of modest job growth and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% for August, which may lead to a definitive decision on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The upcoming employment report is significant as it follows news that the number of unemployed in July exceeded job vacancies for the first time since the pandemic [1] - Economic growth in employment is being hindered by high tariffs and immigration policies under the Trump administration, which have led to a reduced labor supply [1][2] Group 2 - Economists expect non-farm payrolls to increase by 75,000 in August, a slight rise from 73,000 in July, but this growth is seen as realistic given the reduced labor supply [1] - The average monthly job creation in the second quarter was only 35,000, significantly lower than the 123,000 in the same period of 2024 [2] - A potential downward revision of employment levels by up to 800,000 is anticipated, based on quarterly employment and wage census data [3] Group 3 - The labor market is experiencing a low turnover rate, with job growth primarily driven by the net creation of new companies, which is the most sensitive area for data adjustments [2] - The manufacturing sector may face job losses due to a strike involving 3,200 Boeing workers, compounded by existing pressures from tariffs [5] - There are indications that labor demand weakened further in August, with economists warning that the risks of layoffs may have been underestimated by the market and Federal Reserve officials [5]