Group 1 - The core focus of the market is on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, with economists expecting an addition of 75,000 jobs in August, up from 73,000 in the previous month, but an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% indicates a further slowdown in the labor market [1] - The average job growth over the past three months has only been 35,000, marking one of the weakest periods since the recovery from the 2007-2009 financial crisis [3] - The July job openings fell to a 10-month low, with the number of unemployed surpassing job vacancies for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic began, indicating a deteriorating labor market [5] Group 2 - Manufacturing employment has been consistently weak, with a cumulative loss of 36,000 jobs over the past three months, while government employment also decreased by 10,000 in July [8] - The tariff policies are expected to further reveal their negative impact on the hiring market and overall economy, with projections indicating a potential GDP growth reduction of 0.8-2.0 percentage points by 2025 due to tariffs [10] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is critical for the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts, with differing opinions among officials regarding the state of the labor market and its implications for future monetary policy [10][12] Group 3 - If the non-farm payroll data meets expectations, it is unlikely to cause significant market volatility, maintaining the expectation of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year [12] - A weaker-than-expected report could strengthen the market's expectation for a rate cut this month to over 95%, while a stronger-than-expected report may lead to a reassessment of the Fed's rate cut trajectory [12]
美联储降息前的最后一份非农：市场会否措手不及？
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-05 09:42