布米普特拉北京投资基金管理有限公司：非农数据预期改善，但难阻美联储降息步伐

Group 1 - The market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September remains unchanged despite potentially strong employment data, primarily due to underlying weakness signals in the labor market and the Fed's recent dovish stance [1][5] - The forecast for August indicates an increase of 90,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing July's 73,000 and the market's expectation of 75,000, supported by stable initial jobless claims and a decline in continuing claims [3] - The focus will be on the revision of July's data, as previous months' non-farm data have been adjusted downwards, raising the possibility of a significant downward revision for July, which could indicate a more persistent weakness in the labor market [3] Group 2 - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference has set the tone for a potential policy shift, with a strong data requirement to prevent a rate cut in September, despite the official forecast suggesting rates will remain unchanged [5] - The unemployment rate will be a critical variable in assessing the rate cut threshold; a drop to 4.1% would lower the job growth requirement, while a rise to 4.3% would necessitate stronger job data to alleviate rate cut expectations [5] - The August employment market is expected to show mixed results, with public sector jobs anticipated to slightly recover after a loss of 10,000 in July, and improvements expected in the tourism and hospitality sectors [5][7] Group 3 - Certain sectors are still showing signs of weakness, particularly in professional and business services, which may continue to experience hiring challenges due to the accelerated application of AI technology and reduced labor market fluidity [7] - Manufacturing employment is expected to remain sluggish due to labor supply shocks and tariff uncertainties [7] - Wage growth is projected to remain stable, with an expected month-over-month increase of 0.3% in average hourly earnings and average weekly hours stable at 34.3 hours, indicating no overheating in the labor market [7]