旧经济深蹲，新经济蓄力

Economic Recovery - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August is at 49.4%, indicating a slight recovery from July, but overall economic growth momentum may have peaked [2] - The economic outlook suggests a potential for increased uncertainty, particularly regarding foreign trade recovery, with expectations of a non-linear economic performance influenced by external factors [2][3] - The overall GDP growth target of around 5% for the year is considered achievable despite challenges [2] Market Trends - The second half of the year may see a dual bull market in stocks and bonds, driven by nominal GDP growth as a key pricing factor [2] - The central bank is expected to maintain liquidity to support market conditions, which will contribute to the bullish trends in both asset classes [3] Industrial Production - Industrial production is expected to maintain stability, with a projected year-on-year growth rate of 5.5% for August [4] - The industrial growth is supported by policies aimed at boosting equipment manufacturing and domestic demand, alongside some export resilience due to tariff exemptions [4][6] Consumer Spending - Retail sales are projected to grow by 3.5% year-on-year in August, slightly down from 3.7% in July, influenced by ongoing restrictions on public consumption and the diminishing impact of trade-in policies [7][8] - The automotive retail sector is expected to face pressure due to seasonal factors and the transitional phase of trade-in policies, with a projected retail volume of around 1.94 million vehicles in August, reflecting a 2% year-on-year increase [9] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth is anticipated to slow to 1.1% for the first eight months of 2025, with significant declines in real estate investment [11][12] - Manufacturing investment is expected to grow by 5.2%, while infrastructure investment is projected to increase by 3.0% [11][12] Export and Import Dynamics - Exports are expected to grow by 6.9% in August, while imports are projected to increase by 2.8%, indicating a potential nearing of a downward turning point for exports [20][21] Inflation and Employment - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to remain stable, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to decline by 3.4% year-on-year [22][25] - The urban unemployment rate is anticipated to rise to 5.3% in August, influenced by seasonal factors related to graduation [26]