年内最重要的非农就在今晚！黄金狂飙还是美元翻盘？

Group 1 - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is crucial for assessing the overall direction of the U.S. economy and will directly impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in September [2] - Economists predict that the U.S. will add 75,000 non-farm jobs in August, with an unemployment rate expected to rise to 4.3%, marking the weakest performance since the pandemic began [1][2] - Morgan Stanley has revised its forecast, expecting the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice this year, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, but warns that strong employment data could delay this [2][3] Group 2 - There is significant concern regarding the potential downward revision of previous non-farm payroll figures, with warnings from Goldman Sachs and Standard Chartered that the data may be overstated by 550,000 to 800,000 jobs [3] - The current labor market shows signs of fatigue, with hiring stagnation and low employee turnover, indicating a cooling economy [4][5] - The job growth is increasingly reliant on a few sectors such as healthcare and leisure, but even these areas are showing signs of slowdown [5] Group 3 - The sensitivity of the market to the non-farm payroll data has increased, with analysts suggesting that a strong report could support the dollar and shift focus back to inflation risks [6] - Conversely, a weak non-farm report could further weaken the dollar and reinforce expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, potentially by 50 basis points [6]