华尔街“剧本”：非农夜，美元黄金美股怎么走？

Core Viewpoint - Weak non-farm payroll data may act as a catalyst for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, putting downward pressure on the US dollar while potentially supporting US stocks. Conversely, strong non-farm data could undermine rate cut expectations, leading to market volatility [1]. Summary by Categories Non-Farm Payroll Performance - Non-farm payroll additions below 75,000 are expected to strengthen the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut, with a potential increase to 50 basis points [2]. - An unemployment rate above 4.3% would reinforce the expectation of a 25 basis point cut, while a rate below 4.3% would weaken this expectation [2]. - Year-over-year average hourly earnings growth below 3.7% would support the case for a 25 basis point cut, while stronger growth would diminish rate cut expectations [2]. Impact on the US Dollar - A weak non-farm report would lead to a bearish outlook for the US dollar, while a strong report would result in a bullish sentiment [2]. - The dollar is expected to resume a downward trend with weak data, while strong data may lead to a consolidation phase [2]. Impact on US Stocks - A weak non-farm report is likely to boost stock prices due to lowered rate expectations, while strong data may lead to a bearish outlook for stocks [4]. - The market reaction to a weak report could result in a slight increase in stock prices, while strong data may cause a decline [4]. Impact on Gold - Weak non-farm data is expected to drive gold prices higher, while strong data could lead to a bearish sentiment for gold [4]. - A weak report may push gold prices to new highs, while a strong report could result in a slight decrease in gold prices [4].