Is Casey's Stock A Buy Ahead Of Its Q1 Earnings?

Core Insights - Casey's General Stores is set to report its fiscal first-quarter earnings on September 8, 2025, with analysts projecting an EPS of $5.06 and revenue of $4.48 billion, reflecting a 4% year-over-year growth in earnings and a 9% increase in sales compared to the previous year [2] - For the full year 2025, Casey's reported an EPS of $14.64, EBITDA of $1.2 billion, and expanded its store count by 270, while increasing its dividend by 14% to $0.57 per share [3] - The company has a market capitalization of $18 billion and reported $16 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, with operating profits of $796 million and net income of $547 million [4] Earnings Performance - Historically, Casey's stock has decreased 60% of the time after earnings announcements, with a median one-day drop of 2.7% and a maximum decline of 7% [2] - Over the last five years, positive one-day post-earnings returns occurred approximately 40% of the time, increasing to 58% when analyzing the last three years [6] - The median of positive one-day returns was 7.6%, while the median of negative returns was -2.7% [6] Strategic Outlook - Casey's provided FY2026 guidance of 10%–12% EBITDA growth and 2%–5% same-store inside sales growth, indicating a focus on strong financial results and strategic expansion [3] - The correlation between one-day and five-day post-earnings returns can inform trading strategies, with higher correlations suggesting potential for short-term gains [7][8]