8月非农意外爆冷，“全球资产定价之锚”跌破4.1%

Group 1 - The latest US non-farm payroll report for August showed an increase of only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000 [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since the end of 2021, indicating a weakening labor market [1] - Following the disappointing employment data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September has reached 100% according to market expectations [2] Group 2 - The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported that job vacancies in July fell to 7.181 million, the lowest since September 2024, and below the expected 7.382 million [2] - The ADP report indicated that private sector job growth in August was only 54,000, falling short of the anticipated 65,000 and significantly down from the revised 106,000 in the previous month [2] - Initial jobless claims increased by 8,000 to 237,000, marking the highest level since June 2025, against an expectation of 230,000 [2] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the combination of tariff policy uncertainty, immigration changes, and the rise of AI applications is contributing to a weakening labor market, reinforcing the case for interest rate cuts [3] - Concerns about inflation, fiscal health, and geopolitical instability are raising doubts about the stability of US Treasury bonds, traditionally seen as safe assets [3] - The US government's fiscal and debt situation is described as being in a "quasi-war state," necessitating fiscal consolidation [3] Group 4 - Central banks globally are reducing their bond holdings after previously engaging in quantitative easing during the pandemic, which had increased demand for long-term sovereign bonds [4] - The shift from defined benefit pension plans to defined contribution plans is leading to a decline in demand for long-term bonds from pension funds [4] Group 5 - Large institutions, such as Australian retirement trust funds managing approximately 216 billion USD, are reducing their exposure to US Treasuries, reflecting a broader trend of reassessing asset allocation [5] - Concerns about high debt levels, a weakening economy, and high inflation continue to pose risks to the US Treasury market, even if the government shifts to issuing short-term bonds [5]