国际金价近期屡创新高，背后上涨驱动因素是什么？记者观察→

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in international gold prices is driven by expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, concerns over government debt sustainability, and increased investment in gold as a safe haven asset [1][3][5]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - The market's expectation of the Federal Reserve potentially starting to cut interest rates this month has risen significantly, with a probability of 99.4% following recent employment data indicating weakness in the U.S. job market [5][6]. - Major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, have indicated that if the Federal Reserve adopts a low-interest-rate monetary policy, inflation pressures may rebound, leading to higher long-term U.S. Treasury yields and a decline in the stock market, which could drive more retail investors towards gold [7]. - Concerns over unsustainable government debt have led investors to sell long-term government bonds from the U.S., Japan, the UK, and several Eurozone countries, with some of the outflow directed towards gold investments. In August, global gold ETFs saw a net inflow of $5.5 billion, primarily from North America and Europe [9]. Group 2: Long-term Outlook and Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest that gold and precious metal investments have structural characteristics, especially with central banks increasing their gold reserves. The long-term trend of "financial repression" may support future increases in gold prices [11]. - Current gold prices are reportedly above their long-term equilibrium price, indicating that investors should focus on the long-term value of gold rather than short-term speculative opportunities [13].