专家再次预测中国房价走势，或大概率是正确的，提前做好2个准备

Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, particularly in first-tier cities, with a notable decrease in price decline rates and increased transaction volumes [5][9] - There is a clear divergence in the real estate market, with first-tier cities recovering while second and third-tier cities continue to struggle [10][9] Group 1: Market Trends - Recent data indicates that new home prices in first-tier cities have only decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, a significant improvement compared to previous months [5] - The transaction volume in areas outside the fifth ring road in Beijing has surged by 35% in viewings and doubled in sales within 20 days of policy relaxation [5][4] - Predictions suggest that transaction volumes in areas outside the fifth ring road may increase by 25%-40% from August to September, contributing to a "small spring" in the real estate market [4] Group 2: Market Divergence - There is a stark contrast between the performance of first-tier cities and that of second and third-tier cities, with first-tier cities showing signs of recovery while the latter remain under pressure [10][9] - Inventory pressure is significantly different, with 70% of the national housing inventory concentrated in second and third-tier cities, leading to longer absorption periods compared to first-tier core areas [9] Group 3: Consumer Sentiment - Buyers are increasingly making decisions based on personal circumstances rather than market speculation, with some opting to purchase homes for stability rather than investment [11][16] - The sentiment among buyers reflects a shift in perspective, viewing homes more as consumer goods rather than investment assets, emphasizing the importance of location and livability [18]