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新意网集团(1686.HK):2025财年业绩稍低于预期;估值已充分反映良好基本面

Group 1 - The company's revenue for the fiscal year 2025 is HKD 2.938 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.0%, primarily driven by new data centers contributing to power capacity and ramp-up [1] - EBITDA profit margin slightly increased by approximately 3 percentage points to 72% year-on-year, with adjusted EBITDA at HKD 2.128 billion, a 15% increase, slightly below the forecast of HKD 2.2 billion due to delayed tenant occupancy in MEGA IDC Phase 1 [1] - Operating cash inflow rose by 23.5% year-on-year to HKD 2.063 billion, and the company proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.12 per share, a 7% increase year-on-year, maintaining a payout ratio of approximately 50% [1] Group 2 - The MEGA IDC Phase 1 has commenced operations, providing approximately 500,000 square feet of total floor area and 50 MW of power capacity, making it the largest data center in Hong Kong by power capacity [1] - The company anticipates revenue growth in the next two to three years will primarily come from additional 700,000 square feet of floor area and 130 MW of power capacity from future phases of MEGA IDC, as well as annual rental increases of about 3-5% from mature projects [1] - The company expects to have passed the peak of capital expenditure and interest rate cycles, with capital expenditure projected to decrease from approximately HKD 2.97 billion last year to about HKD 1.18 billion for fiscal year 2025 [2] Group 3 - The company maintains a neutral rating and target price of HKD 8.58, reflecting a valuation that adequately captures the positive fundamentals, with an EV/EBITDA of approximately 20 times for 2026, comparable to leading international data center operators [2] - The company believes that new projects will enhance power capacity, and the rising demand for AI applications in cloud computing and enterprise sectors will contribute to accelerated revenue growth in the medium to long term [2] - However, the current valuation is not significantly discounted compared to international peers, indicating limited short-term upside unless the pace of new project occupancy accelerates [2]