ifo下调德国经济增长预期：美关税持续施压，就业恶化

Economic Outlook - Germany's economy is predicted to grow only 0.2% in 2025, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from previous forecasts, and 1.3% in 2026, down by 0.2 percentage points [3] - Unemployment is expected to rise by 155,000, leading to an unemployment rate of 6.3%, with a return to below 6% not anticipated until 2027 [3] Trade and Tariff Impact - Despite a tariff agreement between the EU and the US, tariffs imposed by former President Trump remain largely unchanged, with most goods facing a 15% tariff, putting pressure on German exports to the US, which is still Germany's most important export market [4] Government Stimulus Measures - The effectiveness of Germany's government stimulus plan is expected to be lower than anticipated, with an economic boost of €38 billion projected for 2025, nearly €20 billion less than previous estimates, and only €9 billion for the current year [5] - Future growth may be supported by defense and infrastructure investments [5] Inflation and Policy Challenges - Inflation in Germany is forecasted to rise to 2.6% in 2026, up from 2.2% in 2024, indicating ongoing economic challenges [6] - The ability of Germany to overcome prolonged economic weakness is heavily dependent on government economic policies, with concerns about potential long-term economic stagnation and industrial decline if policy inertia continues [6]