最新！美联储降息概率逼近100%!

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in September, with a probability of 99.4% for a 25 basis points cut, indicating a strong consensus in the market [3][5] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report for August is seen as a critical data point that could finalize the Fed's decision on rate cuts, with expectations of 75,000 new jobs added [5][6] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3%, which would be the highest level since 2021, while average hourly earnings are expected to show no month-over-month change [5][6] Group 2 - Standard Chartered Bank suggests that if the non-farm payroll report shows a low number of new jobs, it could lead to market pricing in a 50 basis points cut by the Fed [6] - Concerns have been raised regarding government interference in labor statistics, following the dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics chief by President Trump [6] - Malayan Bank notes that despite uncertainties in France, the UK, and Japan, the market has almost fully priced in the possibility of a September rate cut, which could pressure the dollar if the non-farm data is weak [7] Group 3 - Gold prices have been rising, with spot gold reaching $3,546.82 per ounce and COMEX futures surpassing $3,600 per ounce, driven by expectations of a Fed rate cut [7][9] - The price of gold has seen a significant increase of approximately 2.9% for the week, marking the largest weekly gain since mid-June [9] - The recent upward momentum in gold prices is attributed to continuous weak economic data, which has bolstered optimism regarding the Fed's rate cut [9]