美联储9月降息，已成定局？

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data for August, which showed an increase of only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [1][2][12] - The unemployment rate remained at 4.3%, matching expectations, while average hourly wages increased by 3.7% year-on-year, also in line with forecasts [1][2] - Following the release of the non-farm data, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped significantly to around 3.47%, reflecting market expectations of a potential interest rate cut [3][5] Group 2 - Market expectations have shifted towards a 50 basis point rate cut on September 17, 2024, as opposed to the previously anticipated 25 basis points, due to the weak employment data [5][6] - The article discusses the political dynamics influencing U.S. monetary policy, suggesting that the Federal Reserve's reluctance to cut rates is driven more by political motives than by inflation concerns [7][10] - The author posits that if the Federal Reserve were to lower rates to around 1%, it would better serve the American populace, while maintaining higher rates serves the interests of international capital [10][12] Group 3 - The article warns that a 50 basis point rate cut could lead to accelerated capital outflows from the U.S., exposing underlying economic issues and potentially worsening non-farm data and unemployment rates [14][15] - It suggests that subsequent rate cuts may follow, with the possibility of discussions around quantitative easing (QE) by December if economic conditions do not improve [14][16] - The narrative emphasizes that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts may merely reveal deeper economic problems rather than stimulate growth, urging investors to reconsider their assumptions about the effects of rate cuts [15][17]