国际金价近期屡创新高，背后上涨驱动因素是什么？记者观察

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent surge in international gold prices is driven by expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, concerns over government debt sustainability, and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3][5]. Group 2 - The first major reason for the rise in gold prices is the increasing market expectation that the Federal Reserve may begin to cut interest rates this month, with a probability of 99.4% for a 25 basis point cut following recent employment data indicating weakness in the U.S. job market [5][6]. - The second reason highlighted is the potential for a rebound in inflation if the Federal Reserve adopts a low-interest-rate monetary policy, which could lead to higher long-term U.S. Treasury yields and a decline in the stock market, prompting more retail investors to seek refuge in gold [7]. - The third reason is the significant sell-off of long-term government bonds from the U.S., Japan, the UK, and several Eurozone countries due to concerns over unsustainable government debt, with funds flowing into gold as a safe haven. Recent data shows a net inflow of $5.5 billion into global gold ETFs in August, primarily from North America and Europe [9][10]. Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the long-term trend of "financial repression" may lead to further increases in gold prices, as central banks continue to increase their gold reserves amid high levels of government debt [11]. - Current models indicate that gold prices are significantly above their long-term equilibrium price, suggesting that investors should focus on the long-term value of gold rather than short-term speculative opportunities [13].