旺季“哑火”！聚酯链品种弱势难改？

Core Viewpoint - The polyester chain has not experienced the expected recovery during the traditional peak season, with prices of key products like PTA and MEG continuing to decline despite a temporary rebound in crude oil prices [1][2] Supply and Demand Analysis - Weak expectations on both supply and demand are key factors suppressing the market, with all segments of the polyester chain facing increased supply pressure due to new production capacity coming online [2] - The overall capacity utilization rate for the glycol market is at 75%, which is high compared to the same period in the last three years, indicating limited short-term supply increases [2][4] - Current inventory levels for PTA and MEG are not high, suggesting potential for price recovery if demand exceeds expectations during the peak season [5] Market Sentiment - The market's demand expectations are neutral, with no strong recovery observed during the peak season, and high inventory levels from previous demand surges are further delaying recovery [4][5] - The cash flow across various segments of the polyester chain remains under pressure, and good export performance is insufficient to support overall demand recovery [4] Future Outlook - The polyester chain is expected to face significant supply pressure in the fourth quarter, with short-term futures prices likely to experience downward pressure [6][7] - In the medium to long term, the polyester chain may see a valuation recovery in the first quarter of next year as new facilities come online and oil prices stabilize, contingent on inventory changes in glycol [8]