【南篱/黄金】2025年第九次非农

Group A: ETF Holdings - Since July, there have been 20 changes in gold holdings, with 12 increases and 8 decreases [3] - As of September 4, total gold inventory is 981.97 tons, with a decrease of 2.29 tons, valued at approximately $111.92 billion [4] - The frequency and quality of increases in gold holdings have strengthened, particularly after the dovish remarks from Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting [5] Group B: Speculative Sentiment Report - The market sentiment shifted towards a more bullish stance following Powell's dovish speech, leading to a significant increase in gold prices [8] - The current market dynamics suggest that if new highs are reached while the bullish positions are compressed to below 35%, gold prices may continue to rise [8] Group C: Fundamental Analysis - Following the Jackson Hole meeting, market expectations for interest rate cuts have changed, with a focus on potential cuts in December [11] - The dollar is currently fluctuating between 98.6 and 97.6, with expectations that upcoming non-farm payroll data could influence its movement [11] - The geopolitical tensions have lessened, potentially stabilizing the market environment [13] Group D: Non-Farm Payroll Insights - The previous ADP data was revised from 10.6 to 5.4, indicating a softening in private sector employment [14] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is critical, with expectations set between 7.3 and 7.5 million; outcomes will significantly impact gold and dollar valuations [16] Group E: September Outlook - Gold prices have repeatedly set historical highs, driven by strong market speculation [17] - The upcoming interest rate decision on September 18 is anticipated to influence market strategies, with a focus on potential upward movements in gold prices [19]