金价强势突破3600美元大关！超买回调在即，还是新一轮涨势的起点？

Core Viewpoint - The latest employment data in the U.S. fell significantly short of expectations, providing strong justification for the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts this month, which in turn has driven gold prices to record highs [1] Employment Data - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm employment added only 22,000 jobs in August, far below market expectations [1] - The ADP private employment report also indicated that job additions were below expectations, while the JOLTS report showed a sharp decline in job vacancies for July [1] Gold Price Movement - Following the employment data, gold prices surged, breaking the $3,600 per ounce mark, with a daily increase of over 1% and a weekly gain exceeding 4%, marking the best performance since mid-May [1] - Analysts express mixed views on the sustainability of gold's upward momentum, with some indicating that the price is currently overbought [1] Analyst Perspectives - FXTM's senior market analyst, Lukman Otunuga, noted that while the fundamentals support bullish sentiment for gold, technical indicators suggest a potential correction if prices fall below $3,570 [1] - Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank is more optimistic, predicting gold could reach $3,800 due to expectations of aggressive rate cuts and risks to the Fed's independence [1] - Robert Minter from abrdn ETF believes gold is on track to reach his year-end target of $3,700, supported by structural demand from central banks and investor buying based on rate cut expectations [1] - Aaron Hill from FP Markets argues that the upward trend in precious metals is supported by strong demand factors, including central bank purchases and safe-haven buying amid geopolitical risks [1] Future Considerations - Some analysts suggest that the continuation of gold's rally will depend on the extent of the Fed's rate cuts, with Michael Brown from Pepperstone noting that a 50 basis point cut remains a high threshold [1] - Upcoming inflation data may be crucial for gold's further movement, with expectations that significantly lower CPI and PPI in August could strengthen the case for a 50 basis point cut [1] - Even if the Fed does not implement substantial cuts, the ongoing loose monetary policy is expected to support gold prices in the long term [1]