Bank of America(US:BAC) 智通财经网·2025-09-06 03:27Core Viewpoint - Bank of America economists have revised their monetary policy outlook, now expecting two interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2023, specifically in September and December, due to weak labor market data and signs of a potential economic slowdown [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The August non-farm payrolls report showed an increase of only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the median forecast of 75,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [2] - The previously weak employment figures for June and July were revised down by a total of 21,000 jobs, with June's data indicating a contraction for the first time since 2020 [2][5] Group 2: Monetary Policy Predictions - Bank of America now anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower the policy interest rate target range from 4.25%-4.5% to 3%-3.25% by mid-2026, with three cuts of 25 basis points each [1] - The economists also predict that inflation, measured by the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, may rise to 3% in August due to tariff effects, potentially leading the Fed to pause rate cuts in October [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the disappointing employment data, swap contracts have fully priced in a 100% chance of a rate cut in September, with increased expectations for further cuts in the remaining meetings of the year [2] - The sentiment among market participants has shifted towards anticipating more aggressive easing measures by the Fed, with some traders considering the possibility of a larger half-percentage point cut [2]