美国劳动力市场进一步降温，9月降息几成定局

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market showed signs of further cooling, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August, significantly below the market expectation of 80,000 [1] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%, the highest level since November 2021, indicating a potential shift in the labor market dynamics [1][3] - Manufacturing jobs have been particularly affected, with a loss of 12,000 jobs in August and a total decline of 42,000 jobs from May to August, attributed to tariff uncertainties [3][4] Group 2 - Analysts predict a high probability (89%) of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with some suggesting a possibility of a 50 basis point cut due to the weak employment data [1][5] - The labor market's deterioration may lead the Federal Reserve to prioritize labor market stability over inflation targets, as indicated by the comments from analysts [1][5] - The healthcare and leisure sectors showed resilience, while manufacturing, construction, and federal government jobs continued to decline, reflecting broader demand-side weaknesses [4] Group 3 - The market consensus leans towards a 25 basis point cut, but there is debate over the extent of the cut, with some analysts arguing for a larger reduction due to the disappointing employment figures [5][6] - The potential for a more dovish Federal Reserve is influenced by ongoing political maneuvers, including the appointment of more dovish members to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [6]