沥青：旺季不旺，成本与需求左右市场走向

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market is experiencing a seasonal peak that has not exceeded expectations, with short-term fluctuations following cost changes [1] Supply and Demand - Overall asphalt supply remains stable, but demand is hindered by rainfall and funding shortages, leading to ineffective release [1] - Factory inventory pressure is low, while social inventory depletion is slow, with some speculative demand driving inventory transfers [1] Price Dynamics - The basis in Shandong has weakened, while the crack spread remains high [1] - In the coming week, increased rainfall in the southern regions is expected to weaken the fundamentals on a month-on-month basis, highlighting the lack of robust seasonal demand [1] Cost Factors - OPEC's continued production increase has alleviated tight supply expectations for asphalt costs [1] - In the medium to long term, improved construction conditions are anticipated as autumn approaches, although intermittent rainfall is still expected [1] Regional Insights - Recent trials for consumption tax reform in Shandong have not expanded, and due to crude oil quotas and consumption tax restrictions, South China remains a price lowland [1] Market Sentiment - Currently, the asphalt peak season is not performing beyond expectations, with short-term movements closely tied to cost fluctuations [1] - Positive factors include low factory inventory pressure, seasonal demand, low construction activity with expectations for catch-up work in the south, and strong expectations for capacity reduction [1] - Negative factors include increased arrivals of Marwan crude oil, short-term demand drag from the southern rainy season, slow social inventory depletion, and a weakening basis [1]