美元“霸权”落幕？巨头：美国国债或迎“最糟糕十年”

Core Viewpoint - The recent data indicates a significant shift in global reserve management, with gold surpassing U.S. Treasury bonds in central bank reserves for the first time since 1996, signaling a potential major global rebalancing [1][2][6]. Group 1: Central Bank Behavior - Central banks are increasingly accumulating gold to reduce reliance on U.S. dollar assets, thereby diversifying potential risks associated with a single reserve currency [3][10]. - The World Gold Council (WGC) reports that global central banks have net purchased gold for 14 consecutive quarters, with annual purchases exceeding 1,000 tons in the last three years, nearly double the previous decade's average [6][9]. - A survey by WGC shows that 95% of central banks plan to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019 [9]. Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold is currently in its third major bull market, with prices rising 36% this year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 and Bitcoin [11][15]. - Historical context shows that gold has experienced two previous bull markets, both linked to significant changes in the global financial system, with the current environment resembling the instability of the 1970s [16][17]. - Analysts predict that the current bull market in gold could last for several years, driven by high inflation, geopolitical tensions, and a questioning of the dollar's stability [15][17]. Group 3: Bond Market Context - The bond market is experiencing a downturn, with long-term U.S. Treasury yields reaching levels not seen in decades, leading to significant declines in bond prices [18][20]. - The current bond market conditions reflect investor concerns over inflation and debt sustainability, prompting a shift towards gold as a safer asset [21][25]. - Historical data indicates a positive correlation between U.S. government debt-to-GDP ratios and gold prices, suggesting that rising debt levels often coincide with increased gold prices [25]. Group 4: Future Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price target to $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, with potential spikes to $4,500 or $5,000 if the Federal Reserve's independence is compromised [26]. - Bank of America and JPMorgan also forecast gold prices reaching $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, reflecting a bullish sentiment on gold amid macroeconomic uncertainties [27][28].