Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US non-farm employment data for August remains weak, with downward revisions in the previous two months' data, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - In August, the US added 22,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since November 2021 [1][2][8] - The labor force participation rate was 62.3%, slightly above expectations, while average hourly earnings remained stable with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [1][2] Group 2 - Following the non-farm data release, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts increased, with a 100% probability of a September cut and an increase in the expected number of cuts for the year from 2.4 to 2.8 [1][16] - The employment situation shows a broad weakening across various sectors, with 9 out of 14 industries reporting negative job growth, while only low-end service sectors saw increases [8][10] - The short-term outlook for US employment remains weak, but it may be nearing a bottom, with a low risk of continued deterioration or recession [18][23]
8月非农就业仍差，美联储有望连续降息【国盛宏观熊园团队】
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-06 10:14