刘晓曙：美国关税手段为何失灵？专家说→

Core Viewpoint - The trade protectionist policies implemented by the Trump administration since 2017 have not led to the expected long-term prosperity for the U.S. economy, but rather have caused structural impacts on the U.S. economy and the global trade system [3][8]. Short-term Benefits and Long-term Costs of Tariffs - The asymmetric tariff design has temporarily boosted some manufacturing capacity in the U.S., with companies like Samsung and TSMC announcing investments in U.S. facilities [4]. - However, U.S. manufacturers relying on global supply chains face rising cost pressures, with a McKinsey report indicating a 37% average increase in total supply chain costs for companies shifting production from Asia to Mexico and Vietnam [4]. - Tariff policies have raised import prices, eroding consumer purchasing power, with Goldman Sachs estimating that the cost passed to consumers could rise from 22% to 67% if tariffs continue [4][10]. Dynamics of Trade Relations and Erosion of U.S. Centrality - The use of tariffs as negotiation tools has weakened the U.S.'s relationship with multilateral trade systems, leading to a diversification of global trade networks [5]. - Data shows that trade with the EU and other economies is shifting away from the U.S., with the EU increasing its trade share with China while decreasing its trade with the U.S. [5][14]. Monetary Policy Dilemma - The Federal Reserve faces a challenging balance between maximizing employment and stabilizing prices, with recent data indicating a weakening job market [6][16]. - Inflation remains a concern, with the core consumer price index rising to 3.1%, complicating the Fed's monetary policy options [6][17]. Growth Prospects: Debt, Inflation, and Tariff Constraints - Despite short-term resilience, U.S. economic growth is constrained by government debt exceeding $37 trillion, rising inflation, and the impacts of tariffs [7][20]. - If tariffs are fully implemented, GDP growth could decline by an average of 0.5 percentage points from 2025 to 2026, with significant price increases for consumer goods [7][22]. Impact of Trade Protectionism on Global Value Networks - The U.S. trade protectionist policies disrupt the free flow of goods and services, leading to increased costs and efficiency losses that ultimately harm the U.S. economy [13]. - The U.S. is losing its traditional core position in global value chains as countries seek to reduce reliance on the U.S. market [14][15].