华源证券：首次覆盖伊利股份给予增持评级

Core Insights - The report highlights that Yili Group (伊利股份) is diversifying its business, showing resilience in operations, and has been given a "Buy" rating for the first time [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 61.933 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.37%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.2 billion yuan, down 4.39% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.016 billion yuan, up 31.78% year-on-year, indicating improved core business profitability [1] - For Q2 alone, the company reported revenue of 28.915 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.77%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.326 billion yuan, up 44.65% year-on-year [1] Business Segments - The company’s revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and cold drinks for the first half of the year was 36.126 billion yuan, 16.578 billion yuan, and 8.229 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -2.1%, +14.3%, and +12.4%. The milk powder and cold drink segments were the main drivers of revenue growth [2] - In Q2, the revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and cold drinks was 16.485 billion yuan, 7.765 billion yuan, and 4.124 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -0.8%, +9.7%, and +38% respectively [2] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin for Q2 improved by 0.61 percentage points year-on-year to 34.19%, indicating enhanced profitability. The company managed to control its overall expense ratios effectively, leading to a non-recurring net profit margin of 8.3% for Q2, an increase of 2.41 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Inventory impairment losses were approximately 316 million yuan in the first half, significantly reduced from 480 million yuan in the same period last year, primarily due to decreased impairment losses on spray powder [3] Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 11.1 billion yuan, 12.2 billion yuan, and 13.25 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 31.22%, 10.01%, and 8.62% [4] - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 16, 15, and 13 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [4]