王健林的预言又准了！2026年的房价如何，已经出现4个迹象

Core Insights - The real estate market is entering a "deep adjustment period," as predicted by Wang Jianlin three years ago, with clear signals emerging regarding the price trends for 2026 [1][38] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with listings exceeding 7.53 million, a historical high, while transaction volumes have decreased by 15% year-on-year [3][5] - Many cities face a situation of "more listings, fewer transactions," leading to properties remaining unsold for months, and buyers are increasingly negotiating prices down [5][12] - Developers are heavily promoting properties due to inventory pressure and debt crises, with a total inventory of 760 million square meters and 525.7 billion yuan in debts due by 2025 [7][8] Group 2: Financing and Borrowing Trends - Mortgage rates have dropped to historical lows, from 5% to 3% over two years, yet the number of applicants has not increased significantly [10][12] - The high leverage ratio of 62% among residents has made them cautious about taking on long-term mortgages, preferring to keep funds for emergencies [12][26] Group 3: Price Disparities - While core areas in first-tier cities maintain strong demand for quality properties, prices in county towns and suburban areas are declining, with some prices dropping from 8,000 yuan per square meter to 5,000 yuan [13][20] - The disparity in housing prices within the same province or city is becoming more pronounced, driven by market dynamics [14][16] Group 4: Regional Economic Factors - Core areas benefit from scarce resources such as quality education and healthcare, which sustain demand for properties despite overall market conditions [18][20] - Non-core areas are suffering from population outflow and lack of competitive industries, leading to a significant drop in housing demand [22][24] Group 5: Policy Implications - Policy measures aimed at stimulating the market, such as lowering mortgage rates and relaxing purchase restrictions, have had limited impact in non-core areas [26][28] - Developers in core areas can still manage inventory effectively, while those in non-core areas face high inventory pressures and may need to pause sales [28][30] Group 6: Strategic Recommendations - Potential buyers should focus on core areas with quality resources and maintain a cautious approach to financing, ensuring emergency funds are available [32][39] - Sellers should be realistic about pricing and consider minor renovations to enhance property appeal [34] - Observers should track market dynamics, including listing and transaction volumes, as well as population trends, to identify potential opportunities [36]