俄媒：印度若不买俄罗斯石油，将以更多的折扣价“抢占”中国市场

Core Viewpoint - India's fluctuating oil import strategy from Russia raises questions about its motivations and the influence of U.S. pressure [1][3][10] Group 1: India's Oil Import Dynamics - In August 2025, India's total oil imports decreased by 4%, while imports from Russia increased by 5.6%, raising Russia's share of India's oil imports from 33% to 37% [3][6] - The Indian government appears to be using a strategy of reducing imports to negotiate better prices from Russia, despite U.S. threats of tariffs [4][6] - Indian refiners are primarily focused on acquiring oil at lower prices, and the recent reduction in imports was a tactic to leverage negotiations with Russia [4][6] Group 2: U.S. and Global Market Reactions - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen criticized India for profiting from the resale of Russian oil, claiming it generated at least $16 billion for India's wealthiest families [3][6] - If India were to stop purchasing Russian oil, it could benefit China, which is already increasing its imports of Russian oil, potentially leading to a shift in market dynamics [7][9] - Middle Eastern oil producers may fill the gap left by India in the Russian oil market, leading to a significant market reshuffle [9][10] Group 3: Price Dynamics and Market Implications - The discounts on Russian oil have decreased from $30-$35 per barrel to around $10, making it less attractive for India to negotiate for further reductions [6][10] - China's increased purchases of Russian oil, particularly Ural and Varandey grades, indicate a strategic move to capitalize on lower prices due to sanctions [6][9] - The overall market for Russian oil remains robust due to its competitive pricing, suggesting that India’s potential withdrawal could backfire economically [10][11]