敌人的敌人，不是朋友！俄乌战争背后，美元与欧元的暗战

Group 1 - The article discusses the emergence of a new form of warfare, specifically a war of public opinion, as exemplified by the conflict between "Bear A" and "Bear B" [1] - It questions the superficial understanding of modern warfare, suggesting that it is not merely about geopolitics but involves deeper economic and political motivations [1][3] - The article references Ray Dalio's theory of the "Empire Cycle," which outlines the cyclical nature of global power dynamics and the challenges faced by current hegemonic powers [3][8] Group 2 - Three main issues are identified as challenges for dominant powers: economic recession, internal conflicts, and external tensions [6] - Historical patterns show that transitions of power among dominant nations have historically been accompanied by intense warfare [7] - The current hegemon, referred to as "Bear A," faces significant challenges from emerging powers, particularly in East Asia, indicating a major shift in global dynamics [8] Group 3 - The article emphasizes that modern warfare is fundamentally about establishing and maintaining order, which encompasses political, economic, and military dimensions [10] - The existing financial order, dominated by "Bear A," is characterized by a monopoly on global capital and military power, which is threatened by rising challengers [10][17] - The article argues that the motivations behind modern conflicts are often rooted in the desire to control the rules and distribution of power and wealth [10][19] Group 4 - The relationship between "Bear A" and the European Union is complex, as both entities navigate their interests in the context of rising tensions with "Bear B" [13] - Data from the World Bank indicates a decline in the dollar's dominance in global reserves, suggesting a shift in financial power dynamics [16] - The article posits that the European Union, rather than "Bear B," poses a more significant challenge to "Bear A's" established order, complicating the geopolitical landscape [17][19] Group 5 - The article concludes that the ongoing conflict between "Bear A" and "Bear B" serves the interests of "Bear A," as it distracts from internal issues and maintains the status quo of financial dominance [21] - It highlights the role of political narratives in shaping public perception and rallying support during economic hardships, often diverting attention from the underlying causes of conflict [21]