财信证券宏观策略周报（9.8-9.12）：调整之后更健康，慢牛行情仍将延续

Market Overview - The market experienced its first significant adjustment last week due to profit-taking by event-driven funds, a healthy need for market rhythm adjustment after rapid index increases, and a structural shift from high-position sectors like computing power and semiconductors to lower-position sectors such as energy storage and new energy [1][4][6] - The long-term upward trend of the A-share index remains intact, supported by expectations of performance improvement from the "anti-involution" policy and liquidity improvement from household savings entering the market [1][5][9] Investment Recommendations - Focus on low-entry opportunities in high-prosperity sectors, particularly energy storage and new energy, which are expected to replace AI hardware as the main market growth driver [1][6][9] - Service consumption sectors such as tourism, dining, duty-free, and cinema are recommended for gradual layout in September [1][7][9] - Sectors benefiting from potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, including innovative pharmaceuticals and precious metals, should be monitored [1][8][10] Key Trends - Public fund sales fee reform is expected to encourage long-term investment behavior among investors, promoting stable long-term operation of the A-share market [2][5] - The energy storage and new energy sectors are seeing increased market attention, with significant growth in transaction volume and a potential to replace AI hardware as the new market growth line [2][6] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have risen, with a 71% probability of three rate cuts by the end of the year, which could benefit emerging markets and sectors like precious metals and innovative pharmaceuticals [2][8] Performance Metrics - The A-share market's valuation remains attractive, with the TTM price-to-earnings ratio at 21.87, placing it in the 88.03% historical percentile, indicating a low point in earnings performance [5][9] - Recent data shows a significant drop in household deposits, with a decrease of 1.11 trillion yuan in July, while non-bank financial institutions saw an increase of 2.14 trillion yuan, indicating a shift of household savings into the stock market [5][9]