下周，反弹有望延续

Group 1: Global Market Overview - Global stock markets are characterized by "tech stocks leading, A-share growth sectors diverging, and Hong Kong stocks driven by southbound capital for valuation recovery" [1] - The Nasdaq index rose 1.14% to reach a new high, supported by the resilience of AI computing and semiconductor sectors, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.32% due to reduced investment in large-cap blue-chip stocks [1] - Emerging markets showed structural divergence, with Brazil's IBOVESPA index up 0.86% and the Nikkei 225 index up 0.70%, driven by semiconductor export recovery [1] Group 2: Commodity Market - COMEX gold prices increased by 3.52% to $3639.8 per ounce, driven by Fed rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks, benefiting precious metal sectors in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2] - ICE Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.68% to $65.67 per barrel due to global economic slowdown expectations [2] Group 3: A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market experienced its first significant adjustment since the current rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.18% and the ChiNext Index up 2.35% supported by the new energy sector [2] - Trading activity decreased, with total A-share turnover at 13.02 trillion yuan, a 12.8% week-on-week decline, indicating profit-taking in high-positioned sectors [2] Group 4: Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong market saw a net inflow of southbound capital amounting to 30.269 billion yuan, pushing the Hang Seng Index up 1.36% [3] - Southbound capital has cumulatively exceeded 1 trillion Hong Kong dollars this year, with significant investments in Alibaba and Tencent [3] Group 5: Sector Performance - In the A-share market, the power equipment sector led gains with a 7.39% increase, while the defense and military sector fell by 10.25% due to profit-taking and valuation concerns [3] - The Hong Kong precious metals sector surged by 10.66% due to rising gold prices, while the trade and distribution sector dropped by 12.74% amid global economic uncertainties [4] Group 6: Market Outlook - The current market logic revolves around liquidity easing expectations and internal rebalancing within growth sectors, with a 99.4% probability of a Fed rate cut in September [4] - The A-share market is expected to continue its rebound driven by growth technology, while the Hong Kong market may see a rebound in the Hang Seng Technology Index supported by ongoing southbound capital inflows [5]