Group 1 - Concerns regarding sovereign debt risks in major developed economies are rising, driven by increased government spending and fiscal expansions in the US, Europe, and the UK [2][3] - The yield curves of major economies are steepening due to long-term concerns about sovereign debt, reflecting higher credit risk premiums [3] - Global debt leverage is likely to decline, which may constrain future economic growth and point towards a downward trend in interest rates [4] Group 2 - The potential for gradual interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may open up further space for monetary policy easing by the People's Bank of China [5] - A decrease in short-term interest rates could lead to a corresponding decline in medium to long-term rates, potentially steepening the yield curve [5][6] - The supply of government bonds is expected to decrease in the coming months, which may also contribute to a decline in long-term interest rates [5]
中金：全球政府债务持续扩张背景下的国债曲线牛陡化趋势